Vladimir Putin won a famous victory this week in Syria, he is taking credit for a ceasefire and the start of peace talks.
However, when we look closer, we realize that Russia's victory is hollow. The Islamic State(IS) still remains and the peace is fragile. The average salary a month in January 2014 was $850, now a year later it is $450. In 2011-12, many citizens took to the streets to demand that their country become a modern state where elections are contested.
Mr Putin has responded by annexing Crimea and vowing to restore Russian greatness after the Soviet collapse. With action in Ukraine and Syria he makes it look as if Russia is the equal of US. This message is very popular with ordinary Russian's. What he wants is that the democratic revolutions in Ukraine and Syria must fail or he fears that Russia itself will one day have a revolution of its own.
So far his plan has worked, fooled by pro-Kremlin broadcast media, ordinary Russians have been willing to trade material comfort for national pride. Mr Putin's popularity ratings remain above 80%, far higher than most Western leaders. However, since last October, the share of voters has fallen from 61% to 51%.
The biggest test however, will be Ukraine. If Ukraine can become a successful European state, it will show Russians that they have a path of liberal democracy. But, if Ukraine fails, it will strengthen Putin's argument that Russia belongs to its own "orthodox" culture and that liberal democracy has nothing to do with it
.
So far his plan has worked, fooled by pro-Kremlin broadcast media, ordinary Russians have been willing to trade material comfort for national pride. Mr Putin's popularity ratings remain above 80%, far higher than most Western leaders. However, since last October, the share of voters has fallen from 61% to 51%.
The biggest test however, will be Ukraine. If Ukraine can become a successful European state, it will show Russians that they have a path of liberal democracy. But, if Ukraine fails, it will strengthen Putin's argument that Russia belongs to its own "orthodox" culture and that liberal democracy has nothing to do with it
.
